The world is waiting and watching with baited breath to see whether Vladimir Putin will start (actually, expand) a war in Ukraine–a country already partially occupied. This is the fun part for Putin: Having the whole world treat him like a dangerous man, and Russia as a Superpower. That was the biggest goal of this entire exercise: Russia wants respect. But the fun part is almost over. At some point, Putin will have to make a choice and regardless of what he decides, the choice will be costly.
Putin has many reasons to want Ukraine conquered or permanently broken. He is worried about Russia’s vulnerability to land invasions (an ancient Russian concern). He is very concerned about the growing desire of nations around Russia wanting democracy and freedom. Ukraine now overwhelmingly wants to be part of the West and not the Russian East which is hugely problematic for Putin. Then there’s the issue of Putin viewing Ukraine as a Russian territory, not a separate country. But the overriding goal was to weaken NATO and make the United States in particular look like a has-been, declining world power.
All of that was easy enough over the past nine months. In fact, both Europe and the United States have been completely asleep at the wheel as Russia invaded Georgia, Crimea, the Donbass, and messed around in Syria and most recently Kazakhstan. George W. Bush had an amiable relationship with Putin, but put new U.S. bases around Russia’s borders. Obama naively tried a re-set with Russia, only to find out that they were entering into a new expansion phase. And Trump greatly admired Putin and did the dismantling of NATO, European alliances, and U.S. troop removal from Europe without Putin having to do anything. Then Biden came along reacting very slowly to Putin’s military build-up. By December, the allies began to respond much more quickly and forcefully than Putin ever expected.
The speed at which Sweden and Finland began to talk about joining NATO was alarming to Putin. The Baltic states, Poland, and many other countries offered everything from troops to high-tech equipment and the promise of loans. The U.S. sent military hardware, troops, and F-14’s in Poland and Romania. Although, Russia’s military is much more powerful than Ukraine’s; the Javelins, Stinger’s and other tank-busting equipment will do some embarassing damage to Putin’s military. If NATO firepower and airpower got into the equation, it would go extremely poorly for Russia. If U.S. airpower got involved, Russia’s military would never recover. Luckily for Putin, right now it seems like it is only Ukranians he will have to fight.
What can Putin gain? It looks like he took this ruse too far. He really expected Biden and NATO to blink because prior to this, they weren’t even awake. But what he has done is made Russia more hated in Ukraine, pushed NATO closer together than it has been since 9/11, and he has pushed Finland and Sweden toward NATO’s orbit. Furthermore, he is using the bulk of Russia’s military hardware. Were things to go wrong, there would be no rebuilding it. He has also left Russia’s Far East dangerously exposed because Russia simply doesn’t have the huge army it pretends to have. These are 1 or 2 year conscripts, hired mercenaries, and a hodge-podge of other soldiers. Can these troops do a lot of damage to the Ukrainians. Absolutely, but Russia has few young men left in its country to serve in the military (its demographic condition is horrible). Much of its equipment is not in good condition. One can expect a lot of tank failures and faulty equipment. And of course, occupying a country is a long, bloody nightmare (something the USA didn’t bother to take into consideration in Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan). A long occupation of even half of the Ukraine would be a huge drain on resources and lives. Neither is it clear that Russia’s generals see eye to eye with Putin. Ultimately, Putin’s number one goal at all times is his own survival, which requires happy oligarchs stealing from the Russian people and parking their money overseas, and a happy military. Any dent in those two alliances could lead to his nightmare: being the Russian Colonel Khaddaffi.
Putin is often mistaken as a master strategist. He is not. He is a bully, a gaslighter, and he has no capacity for shame. Those three things will get you very far against weak enemies. Putin was counting on those things continuing to work. But if he acts on the Ukraine, there will be more resistance than he expected. China is watching, and the U.S. and the West cannot let the Ukraine be swallowed up with only a small price to pay. So Putin wants to back out. But now he is in danger of looking like a paper-tiger; and the whole point of this was to appear scary to NATO.
So what will he do? I suspect Putin wants this to end and doesn’t want to risk a severe weakening of Russia’s military capability. It wasn’t supposed to go this far. However, Putin also can’t afford to lose face. His best option might be to expand only a few miles past the Donbass and then aim for a cease-fire. He wins a few battles and gets to call off the war with a few square miles of territory added on. Or he could just leave his troops in Belarus and pretend the whole thing was just to occupy and militarize Belarus. Or he could call it all off and try to frame the whole thing as the USA pulling an Iraq War intelligence mistake-a-la-2003 (the gas-lighting approach). Putin really can’t afford this war. But nobody knows how sane or insane Putin is. Is he like Hitler and he considers himself a military genius? Is he surrounded by “yes” men giving him false reports? Or is he a rational actor? We will soon find out. Regardless, any credibility he hoped to have is shot. And Russia will remain a bad actor on the global stage for the rest of the Putin era. With the Chinese, the Saudis, and others they can continue to try to weaken and sabotage American and European power. But this is probably Putin’s last big gambit of any consequence. His hopes of having Russia return to the table as a respectable power in the G-8 are gone regardless of what he chooses.