There have been quite a few videos and articles (and studies) floating around that are trying to make the point that Covid-19 is not very deadly. They are along the lines of “you have more chances of being eaten to death by koala bears than dying of Covid-19. Of course, these go viral and are used to make it seem that everything should be operating normally. It’s a combination of “monday-morning quarterbacking,” misunderstanding the primary issues and data, and a failure to understand the primary issues. So this is an attempt to flesh it out.
THE PRIMARY ISSUE WAS NEVER DEATH: Even in the very beginning (and I said this back in February), the biggest threat was its infectious nature and the fact that nobody was sure what it would do to the body or how exactly it spreads. All we know is that it was exponential (and indeed it turned out be exponential and global). The greatest on the ground threat was hospitals being over-run in areas where breakouts occurred. All of those things were real problems, it was far more deadly and infectious than the flu, and the situation got better due to the people that risked their lives and took the virus seriously.
So much like the Y2K problem or preventing a terrorist attack; if our societies mobilize and do the right thing, they don’t get credit for the tragedy that could have happened. It becomes “over-blown.”
Of course the death toll is going down, because doctors have learned on the fly how to treat it better, there are a number of different medicines which can really slow Covid-19 down (especially if done early), people are social distancing and taking less risks, and the most vulnerable to death (the elderly, the sick, the obese, those in public transportation) are staying away or being very cautious.
THE INFECTIOUS NATURE REMAINS A REAL PROBLEM: We now know what kind of activities and places raise the chances of infection. Many places (like the beach), are not easy for the virus to spread. But bars, indoor places where people are signing, nursing homes, hospitals, factories and dormitories are particularly dangerous places. The USA could be far more open and normal now if everyone had truly agreed to cooperate and extra measures were taken in the most dangerous places of transmission.
At the very beginning, I said the key would be for countries to adapt new hygenic culture. Most countries have done that and are relatively open. East Asia continues to lead the way, but they have cultures that take it seriously and don’t fight about it.
THE DANGER OF LONG-LASTING SYMPTOMS: One out of every 5 TEENAGERS is having long-lasting symptoms. Covid-19 is unusually good at attacking multiple, critical organs at the same time–including the brain. About the same percentage of people that got SARS and MERS still have not fully recovered. This is a big deal. It can end athletic careers, singing careers, and even take away the sense of taste, which is one of the worst things that can happen to a human. Furthermore, we now have multiple reports from around the world that you can catch it twice, or catch a different strain and be more sick the second time around. The chance of the average person getting it is very slim if you are healthy. Many Americans, people in Britain are not healthy.
THE SILENT SPREADING FACTOR: It’s still impossible to know if someone has it or not–even with testing. No test is 100% accurate and it seems like 20%–and especially children–can carry it and not feel symptoms. The asymptomatic nature still presents a big danger, particularly to vulnerable people.
THE TREATMENT IS WORSE THAN THE DISEASE: Only if your country deals with it terribly. Having hospitals overrun and not even knowing what the virus did would have been worse. But most countries did the so-called “hammer and the dance” approach. A massive total lock-down in the first weeks, followed by a new infrastructure of contact-tracing and mitigation strategies, and a new hygenic culture. Then outbreaks are dealt with when they pop up and isolated. It was not rocket-science. The US and UK never decided on a strategy so they were never really open or closed. This failure of government to mobilize the people and infrastructure is absolutely the worst option.
There are theories that because Covid-19 is a lab creation and not directly from nature (it’s a hybrid genetically), it will not have the staying power of an ordinary Corona Virus.
There’s also a theory that Covid-19 hits a particular region hard, spikes up exponentially, and then drops exponentially.
That would be good news.
The bottom line is that these kind of viruses may be more common in the future. Due to environmental degradation, how we consume meat, the ease of travel, and the large populations of our cities; more pandemics may arrive in the future. Some countries passed this test with flying colors. Others are on a steep learning curve, but clearly in learning mode. And then there are a handful whose response has been so confused, incoherent, and divided that they get a “D” or an “F” on this first big test. They have not really improved their infrastructure, they have not met their social obligations, they have not scientifically educated their people, and they have damaged their economies and their people psychologically by not being able to figure out the hammer and the dance. Sadly, the U.S. and Britain are two of those countries.