For months, there have been protests by Kazakh people over fuel prices and a general lack of prosperity. This led to the people taking to the streets, taking over government offices, and demanding true democracy. The former behind-the-scenes dictator Nazarbayev has gone silent and it initially looked like the police were siding with the protestors.
However, the current President of Kazakhstan, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev seems to have used this opportunity to get Nazarbayev off the stage completely. He has ordered troops to “fire without warning,” Russian “peace-keeping troops” have arrived, and now it has taken a darker turn. West Kazakhstan seems to have peaceful demonstrations, East Kazakhstan now has fake revolutionaries mixed up with the real revolutionaries which gives Tokayev the excuse to fire on his own civilians.
Why should we care? This is yet another example of the forces of centralization fighting the forces of de-centralization across the globe. Authoritarianism has a strong record of looking good in difficult times because people like simple, non-complicated “solutions”, but authoritarianism does a lousy job of governing because it stiffles local, de-centralized innovation and problem-solving. This is the trap many countries are currently caught in. It is one of the big battles of our time.
Underneath it all, is a world that would like to be “green” and carbon-free, but which is still completely reliant on fossil fuels. Kazakhstan, a country larger than Western Europe, is a source of oil and uranium. Many of the world’s countries with critical energy supplies are facing civil unrest now or in the future. Neither Russia nor China would like to see Kazakhstan be a liberated, free actor. Both countries share borders with Kazakhstan and both are sensitive to each other’s involvement in the country. This creates pressure on Russia and China, and probably lessens pressure on The Ukraine. It’s an example of how quickly the geo-political tectonic plates are shifting.