I prefer reading books, but this year I dipped my toe into the world of audiobooks and have one of my own .   Here are 3 very different audiobooks that I greatly enjoyed.

Michael Jordan:  The Life by Roland Lazenby

There are a number of books about Michael Jordan, but this is the best biography.  Aside from a painfully over-written preface that I barely made it through, the biographer settles into a groove and the book is consistently fascinating.  For those of us that were hardcore Michael Jordan fans, we know A LOT about the man.  There are usually not too many surprises.  But the Michael Jordan documentary on Netflix “The Last Dance” was filled with video footage that had never been seen and interviews that had never happened.  This book is the same way.  For those that enjoyed the documentary, this book is a deeper-dive into Jordan’s competitiveness, the tensions between Jordan and his teammates, the many battles with General Manager Jerry Krause, and the tragedy of his father’s murder.  But it goes deeper than that, and that’s where the book gets good.

Jordan’s uncanny ability to unnerve and insult opponents and identify everyone’s weak-spots is truly legendary.  His startling intelligence about the game of basketball is explored, as well as his machiavellian genius when it came to business negotiations.  Nike wanted to own him, but he figured out how to own Nike.  Furthermore, it was completely new to me that there was extreme tension within the Jordan family over his success.  His mother and father were basically torn apart by his success, relationships with siblings grew strained or non-existent, and his family that he cherished so deeply and which kept him sane amidst the truly global mega-stardom was basically destroyed by his fame.

The book takes us all the way through his Washington Wizards tenure and his desire to be an owner of an NBA franchise.  The behind-the-scenes stories about the games, playoffs, rivals, and off-season shenanigans were all very interesting.  Jordan is no saint; but his was a perfect storm of talent that goes beyond athletic skills.  There was great intelligence, an unmatched competitive streak, and an almost diabolical ability to emotionally and mentally destroy people who tried to get in his way.  Jordan makes Machiavelli look like a total wuss.

Secondhand Time:  The Last of the Soviets by Svetlana Alexievich

Russian civilization and the Russian mind is extremely enigmatic and complicated to understand.  A nation that is neither East nor West, a small nation that became geographically-enormous, and a civilization hiding as a country–Russia is complex.  I’ve read quite a lot of books about Russia beginning in the early 1980’s, but this is the best one if you want to understand the Russian soul.  It is a large collection of interviews with different ordinary Russians talking about their hopes, dreams, desires, and their overwhelming sense of futility and resignation.  This is not a happy read (listen).  These are people who are mourning what was lost when the Soviet Union collapsed.  From the perspective of the West, we have a hard time seeing why anyone in the East would be nostalgic about the Communist era.  This book will make you have compassion and understanding.

Written by a Ukranian journalist with extensive experience living and reporting in Russia, the stories collected here tell of how hard life became after the Soviet Union collapsed.  Poverty, dysfunction, crime, immigration, extremely-low birthrates, corruption–for most, attaining middle class or wealthy status has been impossible.  Time and time again, what you hear is that at least in the Soviet Union, they had community and connection.  There was some structure and order to society.  People sang the same songs and had genuine pride in their country.  All of that is gone in the Darwinian, anarchical Russia of today.  It’s every oligarch for himself, and the rest be damned.

We hear from young people (all voiced by different voice actors), poor widows, war veterans, Islamic immigrants from former Soviet Republics, the stories of lovers, and tragedies galore.  Like I said, this is not an uplifting or easy listen.  But for anyone seeking to understand why there is a Putin, why Russia has often made such terrible choices, why they have often shot themselves in the foot, and why they are a nation in severe decline—this book will reveal all.

Beastie Boys Book by By Ad Rock, Adam Horovitz, and Mike D

If you think the Beastie Boys were just dumb, white rappers (a la Vanilla Ice), or think that rap and hip hop are stupid, this book should change your mind.  Yes, it’s a history of the most successful white rap group of all time told by the group, their friends and peers themselves; but more than that, it’s a tribute to the creative genius of the late Adam Yauch (MCA) and a deep dive into the entire culture of hip-hop, not just rap.  It’s actually a brilliant examination of many different kinds of music and their significance socially.  This is because the Beastie Boys, funny as they were, were playing dumb the whole time. Gen-Xers instinctively get the irony of that.   They in fact, were 3 brilliant Jewish kids from New York City who had very sophisticated, eclectic tastes, and enormous musical knowledge.  To create sounds, new beats, rhythms and rhymes, they mined every kind of music imaginable, including classical music.  Even for someone like me, (a music-phile with tastes that range from New Kids on the Block (yikes, did I just admit that?) to Wagner’s Götterdämmerung, from the Nigerian music of Feta Kuli to the Appalachian music of Loretta Lynn, to the Japanese pop of Utada Hikaru and the urban rhymes of Notorious B.I.G.) the Beasties take it to another level.  I found myself looking up artists of all genres I had never heard of.  So creative was their sampling, that they even made an album of entirely made up, eclectic, fake samples making people scramble on impossible quests to find the real song behind the beat.

That’s another thing.  The book is very funny (and the book version is significantly more beautiful).  On the audio-version, Beastie Mike Diamond is joined in narrating the book by many well-known actors, musicians, actual people from their lives, and they include Will Ferrell, Ben Stiller, Steve Buscemi, John Stewart, Amy Pohler, Elvis Costello, Chuck D, Jarvis Cocker, Bette Middler and many others.  Yes, it is for fans (or 80’s kids who have a good ironic sense of humor and want to remember what it was like to grow up in the 70’s and 80’s), but it’s also for anyone that wants to learn about the history of Hip Hop which goes beyond rap, to dancing, graffiti, deejaying, emceeing, and beat-boxing–all things that are more complicated and have more rich, nuanced histories than one might imagine.

FINALLY, My latest book, a personal (and humorous) memoir about my life and the sometimes toxic, sometimes beautiful role religion plays in the world is also available on audio and should be considerably funnier than the Russia book, although you might find me an equally tragic, hopeless figure.  You can order the audio version of No Religion Required:  A Memoir of Faith, Doubt, Chocolate Milk, and Untimely Death (narrated by Darth Vader).

When the internet started to become mainstream around 1998 and chat rooms took off, an interesting thing happened to the Mormon church. Their members started taking their whispered conversations public. As more and more Mormons discovered the anonymity of the internet, they began to find fellow disillusioned kindred spirits who shared about the damage they had incurred by being part of what they now believed to be a cult. The not-so-historical story of Joseph Smith began to be looked at in detail and Mormons found that there was a new way to safely get the answers to questions they were too afraid to ask. Today, something similar is happening to the Evangelical church via YouTube.

By the final years of the 2000s, YouTube exploded with content on all sorts of subjects. Among the things that became easy to find were debates between religious people and atheists. It might be Christian William Craig Lane versus atheist Christopher Hitchens, Bill Nye versus creationist Ken Ham, Jewish Rabbi Botech Shmuley arguing against the ideas of Richard Dawkins or something like comedian Bill Maher inviting atheist Sam Harris on his show. For many people, it was the first time seeing Christianity, Islam, and Judaism get challenged significantly. For Christians, however, those debates don’t have much of an impact as they tend to center around creationism or the specific evils of religious institutions. Creationism isn’t that big of an issue for many Christians and most religious people easily separate their personal religious experience from the crimes and foibles of Christian institutions. But the new wave of YouTube atheists are a different breed. They are significantly impacting not just Christianity, but Islam, Hinduism, Buddhism, Islam and Judaism. They are regular people, starting their own YouTube channels, and having conversations that are far more sophisticated than the “brilliant ones” that Hitchens, Dawkins, Harris, or Daniel Dennett are having and much more accurate than anything Bill Maher might say on his TV show, YouTube channel, or in the movie “Religulous.” The conversations about religions being a phenomenon based on common ideas of primeval, colorful myth that are then legitimized by the religious mainstream, including Christianity, is getting more sophisticated and reaching deeper and farther than it has before.

This is a subject for a book or even better, a YouTube channel–not an essay. But I will briefly highlight 3 reasons why this new wave of YouTube atheists are successfully converting a lot of Evangelicals and other Christians from the faith.

  1. They are sincere learners who do their homework. Sadly, many Christians have gotten a reputation for being hot-headed, close-minded, and averse to facts or anything intellectual. It’s a turn-off to inquisitive, young Christians and anyone else on a religious search. Christian defensiveness radiates insecurity and insincerity in the search for truth. Many of those found talking on YouTube now don’t have the bitter, caustic tone of a Hitchens or Dawkins. A great example of this is the YouTube channel/podcast Mythvision. Hosted by a former Bible-believing Evangelical turned atheist, there may be laughing at times at some of the absurdities and logic pretzels Christians get into trying to explain away theological and Biblical textual issues. But in general, he and the guests try to be fair as they explore what pagan Roman, Hellenic, and Ancient Near Eastern cultures believed and where that overlaps with Biblical theology. The tone and level of detail given to texts and to the times, to the audience the texts were written for, and the culture that produced the text is far more exegetically sound than your average Bible study which is more of:  “What do you think Jesus meant here?” and “How does it inspire you?”  I’ve personally found that most people are starved for deeper more nuanced examinations of the Biblical text than those usually done. They tend to not occur because they require that the pastor know a lot about the various forms of scholarly criticism as well as ancient languages; or they can easily leave behind the less academically and more emotionally inclined. They also take a lot of time to prepare and teach. Consequently, YouTube channels (with all of the religions) offer the believer the opportunity to see that yes, in fact, there was a process of development, adaptation, canonization, and syncretism that permeates the histories of all religions including their own. To say this is eye-opening for most is an understatement. It’s a radical challenge to their fundamental worldview. Sometimes liberating and sometimes soul shattering.  The comment sections are always interesting.
  2. A large number of them are former believers. Both the scholars and the YouTube hosts are almost always people that were once Muslim believers, or Christian believers, or escaped from some other faith. In some languages like Hindi or Arabic, a YouTube search will yield stories and testimonies of people damaged by Hinduism and Islam, who have taken that pain and done a deep dive into their own faith tradition and found not only that it’s not rational or logical, but that it has been excessively tampered with or that their religious texts are riddled with errors, bad copies, and intentional maliciousness by religious scribes. YouTube becomes a light to shine on texts that they and their people, culture, or civilization have held sacred for millennia. Did Buddha really exist?Was there a historical Lao Tzu? Did Mohammed and Paul have schizophrenia or seizures–issues that doctors now believe may make the brain have hyper-spiritual visions? What is the role of mental illness in the lives of religious prophets? These YouTube channels are led by hosts that have gone on the journey of betrayal, disillusionment, deconstructionism, and (in their opinion) freedom from a religion that was oppressing them more than they ever realized. That is impactful and it is a journey many Christians are on and is the reason I wrote my most recent book No Religion Required.
  3. They focus intently on the inconsistencies and textual problems in the Bible (or other religious texts). These shows may highlight in detail the inconsistencies in the four Gospels, or in Paul’s theology in comparison to what Jesus and other disciples believe; or inaccuracies in how ancient Roman Law and Jewish Law worked compared to how it’s presented in the Bible. There’s a big examination of motifs, genres, and ancient religious tropes that the Bible seems to replicate. Scholars among us may say, “this is old news. Haven’t you ever heard of the Jesus Seminar or the Quest for the Historical Jesus, or read Iranaeus and the Church Fathers?  We’ve been dealing with this stuff all the time. What makes this any different?” Well, in this new era, these atheists tend to  find scriptures that Christians are not accustomed to defending or are not even familiar with. If they talk about a Bible story with cannibalism (2 Kings 6:28-29), for instance, they will not only highlight a distasteful moment in the Bible as Hitchens and Dawkins might, but they will also examine how Christians have explained many of these moments away as aberrations or “textual, grammatical, and language” issues. They will go for the deep-dive, highlight illuminating passages or traditions from other pagan beliefs that precede Judaism and Christianity, and introduce the viewer to the complicated rabbit-holes one can go down in religious studies of the Ancient Near East. They will often teach the viewer that Judaism and Christianity are far less different from pagan religions than usually thought. Whether it’s the virgin birth, descending into Hades for three days, or being taken up in the clouds, the answer is, “We’ve seen all this before the time of Jesus and Judaism.”  Why is this different? Because they are often engaging in conversations that don’t even occur amongst the academics who study the Bible. They are viewing that group of academic Bible scholars as epistemologically closed as well–and sometimes they are right. Ancient Near Eastern historians don’t always have a lot of time for the already determined “pre-suppositions of Bible scholars” (be it liberal or conservative). So in this sense, they are both popularizing Bible criticism and expanding and challenging it significantly.

This essay is already a lot longer than I hoped. So, to bring it to a swift conclusion: YouTube channels are challenging religions and their texts in a new way. While many Christians may be set in their ways and some Christian academics might view this as nothing but the same battles they have always engaged in, for many wounded Christians and especially millennial and Gen-Z Christians, these videos are fresh manna from YouTube. They are viewed as effective, enlightening, educational, and liberating. Your grandparent may not be in danger of losing their faith, but your grandkids are if the local church can’t up its exegetical game.

It will be a tough road toward finding solutions because the church has not exactly been rushing to develop Christians who truly know their Bible. Most still view it as one book and are not truly that conscious of genre, symbolism, allegory, poetry, or much else that gives the text nuance. Memorizing verses and knowing Bible stories is one thing. Understanding the history of the text, language and translation issues, and Near Eastern culture is another. Since most Evangelical churches cannot even agree or define what they mean by “literal,” “inspired,” and “inerrant,” in regard to the Bible, it will be a tough slog to deal with many of these issues the YouTubers address and which we may start getting in our churches. A large majority will always be happy just believing and trusting in the Bible (viewing it as God’s Google). But many of their kids and grandkids will not feel that way and will increasingly have more complicated questions about the Bible than just, “Was the Earth really created in six days?”  We need to be better prepared.

 

Patrick Nachtigall is the author of six books dealing with religion and globalization including, “In God We Trust: A Challenge to Evangelicals” and “No Religion Required, a Memoir of Faith, Doubt, Chocolate Milk, and Untimely Death.”

1) Blood and Thunder: The Epic Story of Kit Carson and the Conquest of the American West by Hampton Sides. I was in a bookstore in lovely downtown Santa Fe, New Mexico and the store owner saw me looking at this book. He said, “That will be one of the best books you’ll ever read.” I bought it immediately and it turns out he was right. It’s not often that a book is so good that every single paragraph is filled with fascinating information. It’s the true story of one of the most adventurous men in American history. Kit Carson was a soldier, a hunter, and an expert at understanding and gaining the trust of Native American tribes and he seemed to have nine lives–escaping all kinds of imagineable and unimagineable dangers. It is 1846 and the West is on the brink of being conquered by the United States. The gentle, mild-mannered Carson is tough than Rambo and has more adventures than Indiana Jones. Native Americans are making their last stands, Mexican people and tribes still occupy the Western half of what would become the western United States, and nature is starting to take a beating as humans wipe out buffalo and cause environmental destruction. Carson’s life is constantly exciting, but even more interesting is this extremely vivid glimpse into what life was like in the Old West and what was lost as territory was gained.

2) In Black and White: The Life of Sammy Davis Jr. by Wil Haygood. If you are old enough, like me, you remember enjoying the music, acting, and comedy of Sammy Davis Jr. and the rest of Frank Sinatra’s Rat Pack. But it’s only those who really grew up watching Sammy from childhood that understood how groundbreaking and talented he was. Beginning in the era of vaudeville as vaudeville is dying and is being replaced by the movies, this book not only covers Davis’ long career as an entertainer (he was a child star born in 1925), but also the changes in the entertainment industry and the racism that provided obstacles throughout his whole life. Before Michael Jackson, there was Sammy who seemed to be able to do everything from tap dance, play drums, do impressions, and bring people to tears with his singing. A natural comic, the tiny man with a glass eye (he had a horrific car accident and lost his eye as he was becoming a household name in America) found ways to be succesful and relevant no matter what obstacle life threw at him. Why Me, a biography (based on his autobiography Yes I Can), was one of the best books I read during college. I figured a biography about Sammy with many voices speaking in would be wonderful, and it was. Great for those that were fans of his or love to read about old showbiz.

3) Mao: The Unkown Story by Jung Chang. The story of Mao is well-known and written about, so what can Chinese scholar Jung Chang add? She adds example after example of people NOT being on-board with Mao’s reckless and poorly-thoughout out plans. It’s something we never talked about in graduate school studying modern Chinese history. From his time in Yan’an after the mostly mythical “Long March” to his deathbed in 1976, Chang talks about the many people who tried to stop Mao–and the price they paid for it. The elegant and usually celebrated Zhou Enlai comes off as a man who always knew Mao was a disaster but could never muster up the courage to challenge him, no matter how much humiliation Mao would dish out to him. It’s an angle not written about much and Chang does a great job re-telling the well-known story. Wild Swans remains her masterpiece, however.

4) Count Down: How Our Modern World Is Threatening Sperm Counts Altering Male and Female Reproductive Development, and Imperiling the Future of the Human Race by Shanna H. Swan. Any pediatrician will tell you, children are going through puberty at a much younger age. It is in fact, shocking how early some kids are developing. There are also higher rates of miscarriages (women are only 33% as fertile as their grandmothers), extremely low testosterone levels for men–even young men, estrogen issues for women, and spermbanks that can barely use the material they are given because of deformities. In addition to all of this, genitals themselves are changing and all of this is being observed in the animal kingdom as well at the same time. Initially a skeptic for over 15 years, Swan and her researchers at Stanford found consistent, solid evidence that forever chemicals (endocrine disrupters like plastics, chemicals in food, and drugs that never leave our system) are permanently altering our human bodies. In other words, the chemicals on our farm fields, in our facial products, in our soft-drinks and even in our vegetables are doing great damage to fetuses in the womb. So much so, that it leads to more cases of gential deformity and gender dysphoria. The United States is particularly bad at allowing blatantly illegal chemicals to be unregulated. Over 500 poisons are legally exempt from being taken out of our foods and products in the United States. Then there are the many experimental drugs, anti-depressants, and other medicines that are regularly taken. For those afraid of the Covid vaccine, your average cheeseburger, french fries and the vegetables in your salad probably has more harmful chemicals than a rapidly-made vaccine–chemicals that never leave the body. Swan’s book is very important and there’s not enough discussion about what LEGAL and highly dangerous chemicals are in our food and other products that go on our body. Society taking this book seriously, however, would damage the profit-margins of a multitude of companies and corporations and would force more sensitive nuanced discussions about sexuality, pregnancies, health care and identity. That’s probably the reason the subject and the book do not get enough attention.

5) Genesis for Normal People: A Guide to the Most Controversial, Misunderstood, and Abused Book in the Bible by Peter Enns and Jared Byas. Considering it’s probably the most well-known book in the Bible, it’s remarkable how bad many Christians are at reading Genesis. That is a tragedy, because Genesis is a book that can teach you to read the Bible very correctly or highly inaccurately. There are many good books on Genesis, but this one is the most simple, easy-to-understand guide to getting a handle on what is-otherwise–a very, very strange, but crucial book. Aside from its religious meaning, Genesis has had a huge impact on Western Civilization’s view of humanity in general. Nothing in this sensitively written book should be controversial if one takes seriously Near Eastern literature on its own terms, but sadly even a book this simple and non-threatening would probably be too much for many.

6) Never by Ken Follet. After spending years writing exciting trilogies spanning the World Wars and Medieval times, Follet begins a trilogy in the current era. A U.S. President, CIA officers, and African migrants are just some of the people trying to avert catastrophe as they take on China and Islamic jihadists who are setting up a nuclear war scenario. Part 1 of 3.

7) Roadmap to Hell: Sex, Drugs, and Guns on the Mafia Coast by Barbie Latza Nadeau. A depressing but highly-informative look at how the various Italian mafias in the south of Italy smuggle weapons, drugs, human migrants, and women for sexual slavery purposes. It’s bleak with some unforgettably awful stories. But one learns how efficient these groups are, how lucrative drugs are and how inhuman are the conditions that migrants (particulalry from Africa) must deal with as their own towns in Africa get destroyed. Furthermore, it becomes easier to see how poverty-traps are created and escape is virtually impossible. It’s a side of Italy and Europe that most don’t see (and which is present all over the world). For those of us doing charitable work in these communities, this is a good introduction into how these global networks function.

 

While the world is living through the most tense nuclear face-off since the 1962 Cuban missile crisis, the United States is mostly watching the Kardashians. Yes, it’s true, some countries close to Ukraine are stocking up on iodine pills to combat the possible impact of nuclear radiation; but the post-Truth (nothing is really happening) American worldview is starting to minimize this conflict. Does the Ukraine-Russia war matter to the United States or not?

Democracy is in retreat: We tend to think that democracy is not only the best form of government, but the most stable. To paraphrase Churchill: Democracy sucks hard, but it’s better than the alternatives. The 1990’s and the early 2000’s were a triumph for democratic governments. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, political freedom and fair elections were at an all-time high–including in places like Africa and Latin America that had struggled to have democratic systems. But all of that began to change in 2006, and we now have seen 16 straight years of democratic decline around the world. Ukraine was one of those former Soviet-Republics that ushered in a messy, corrupt, chaotic democracy, but nevertheless began to turn the tide and brought increasing levels of transparency and accountability. But just as they did that, Russia’s oligarchic kleptocracy decided to destroy the whole country, using sham elections as one of many anti-democratic tools. The world can’t afford to not only see democratic decline, but also stand-by while predatory autocratic states actively seek to destroy any country that is genuinely trying to have a government that is accountable to the people.

Stopping Russia’s Playbook of Chaos: Americans don’t seem to realize that weaponizing social media, employing troll farms to make fake accounts, outright buying political parties, and creating social divisions is a playbook Russia has used since the 1920’s. Of course, there was no internet or social media back then, but all of that has only made it easier, faster, and cheaper to do nowadays. It’s no accident that Fascist, nationalistic, anti-democratic parties have flourished in Italy, France, Austria, Spain, the UK, Poland, Greece, and Hungary, as well as the United States all at the same time. This is the Russian playbook of chaos. Find wedge issues in a particular country you wan to defeat, support a political party that has the most internally divisive platform, and cause a civil war within the democratic country instead of trying to figh them head on militarily or economically. This is what Brexit was about, this is what Hungary’s rebelliousness toward the E.U. is about, this is why Poland took a suprising hard-right turn prior to the Ukraine invasion, and this is why Americans no longer believe in election results. By the way, China does this as well. This tactic is extremely inexpensive compared to trying to compete militarily with the United States and NATO. The best part for Russia sis that all of a democracy’s tension, anger and rage gets channeled toward their own citizens and political parties instead of toward Russia or China. It’s no coincidence that suddenly we are seeing a wave of “Russia is okay, why don’t we stay out of it” narratives in the United States. Eight years into this form of social media attack, and Americans, Brazilians, Brits, Italians and everyone else is still falling for this cheap, inexpensive trick.

China is Watching: While the world was sleeping, China totally eradicated democracy in Hong Kong, ushered in a cult of personality leader, and Russia invaded Georgia, Ukraine, interfered in Syria and waged a social media war against multiple nations. The reaction was to give both Russia and China Olympic games to host, and a World Cup to Russia. Both Obama and Trump are guilty of empowering Russia and China. Trump’s standing up to China was based on his zero-sum understanding of economics, not on issues of democracy, human rights, and authoritarianism. Obama never punished Russia significantly even though the Ukraine invasion and democratic subversion began on his watch. China, which is significantly weaker militarily than the United States, but much stronger than Russia was watching this the whole time. Like Ukraine, Hong Kong was a vital contributor to the world’s economic prosperity that was easily swallowed up while the world looked on. The immediate, mobilized response of NATO to Putin’s latest invation was a shock to Putin and China. China is now watching to see if the world’s pro-Democracy nations can be weakened if you just wait them out. While NATO’s strong actions toward Russia initially made China nervous about taking Taiwan (a model democracy), they will feel emboldened if the NATO alliance against Russia falls apart.

Food and Energy: Food and energy shortages and high prices will be the big story of the 2020’s. It may take a year for people to realize how serious these two issues are, but when it hits, it will hit hard. The world’s prosperous countries cannot sit by and tolerate a nation like Russia keeping food and energy hostage. Since the Russians don’t produce anything and even rely on Western technology and firms to extract their oil and natural resources, they don’t have a long-term winning strategy. But it’s vital that the rest of the world move quickly to end the blackmail. Russia is a kleptocratic regime filled with many people beyond Putin who want Russia’s natural resources on the market. Putin’s blackmail hurts the world and the Russian economy. It’s called cutting off your nose, to spite your face or, shooting yourself in the foot just to make your enemy mad. The quicker the world restores Ukraine’s food and energy production and protects it from Russian sabotage, the easier it will be to do this in other strategic areas.

The Nuclear Fear: One agrument against getting involved is Putin’s threat to use nuclear weapons. But, ironically, it is much more difficult to green-light the launching of a nuclear weapon in the Russian system than in the US system. Maybe it’s not ironic since the Russian mind and its thousand year history has a great fear of war, while the United States and its short 200 year history thinks violence solves everything. The Russian military is now at odds with the FSB, and we’ve learned that money meant to keep up Russia’s defense was and is all siphoned off to cronies. Furthermore, the United States has the technology to identify a nuclear launch being set up and stop it before it blasts off (they just don’t advertise this). As long as Putin is alive, the nuclear threat is always on the table. There’s no record of Putin actually ever showing any real bravery in combat or as a KGB agent. His former speechwriter says that deep down he is a coward who lets others do the dirty work. In my opinion, Biden should have sent special teams in to secure all of the nuclear reactors as soon as we saw the Russians targeting Zaporizhzha and Chernobyl. By not doing anything, more nuclear sites and threats have been made.

History Rhymes: “History doesn’t repeat, but it does rhyme,” as Mark Twain said. From a historical perspective, anytime you see geo-political shifts that include the breakdown of global trade, fragmenting and shifting alliances, economic turmoil, nationalistic and xenophic parties, and aggressive despotic behavior from leaders of military powers–it’s not time to “sit this one out.” These are the monumental shifts that occurred in the lead up to World War I and World War II. The United States–a bit player at the time–thought it could sit that one out. But the world was too interconnected for that. The United States seized the moment after World War II and set up the free-market era that led to the American Cenutry. Nature abhors a vaccum, and a lack of American and Western participation will lead to a dangerous vacuum that China, Russia, North Korea, Turkey, and other hostile nations will fill. The option to not engage is not an option. Either the United States remains engaged now with the capacity to add-value to the light of democracy, or it withdraws and sees its fortune fall along with other nations.

Last year, I read the Sci-fi novel “The Ministry for the Future,” by Kim Stanley Robinson. The novel is about a special organization set up to deal with the political and economical challenges of a global climate crisis in the future. It opens with a terrifying scene in India where the high temperatures and extreme humidity reach the wet-bulb level. That is the level at which the body can no longer sweat and we begin to literally boil to death. In the novel, people stand in disappearing lakes to cool off and there are not enough air conditioners nor enough of a power supply to keep millions of people cool. It sounds pretty extreme and as though it’s either impossible or a crisis we will see far, far into the future. But this summer, temperatures in heavily-populated Central China got as high as 117 degrees F. (or 45 degrees Celsius). “Who cares? Vegas is hotter!” The problem was that this region always has humidity levels that reach into the 90% level. That is not Vegas! This came dangerously close to the wet-bulb level and people moved into bomb-shelters to escape the heat–unable to even sleep. This is not normal.

There’s not a single place I travel to where the local people me that the weather is the same as it always was. Throughout the world storms are more severe, droughts longer, floods harsher, and many places are seeing entire industries (as well as animal and plant life) disappear quickly. In Switzerland, there’s no snow on the Alps this summer and enormous glaciers are completely gone. This has dangerous knock-on effects, such as a shortage of a clean water supply for Switzerland and neighboring countries. Enormous forest fires are no longer a California thing–they are now plaguing the very temperate, cool countries of Germany and France. Rivers throughout Europe are dry or very low. All of it is disrupting agriculture and food supply. It is also straining energy supply at a time when energy costs are set to skyrocket across the world. Extreme floods in Pakistan have displaced 10 million people in that country this summer. Lake Havasu in Arizona is drying up, as is the Western United States’ water supply. The examples are endless, weekly, and from every part of the world.

Much of Sub-Saharan Africa and a huge expanse of Asia from Shanghai all the way across to Iran are in danger of hitting wet bulb temperatures in the very near future. About half of the world lives in this large region that is overwhelmingly very hot and very muggy in normal times. Picture Arizona’s heat with 80% to 90% humidity instead of its more normal 30% or lower humidity. It’s physically unbearable. Even without these extreme temperatures, the world is currently hitting a wall on energy. Wind, solar, and other alternative methods of replacing fossil fuels are nowhere close to being able to meet the current energy demands. Even a quick switch to nuclear would still require lots of water and time to build out.

Yes, there have been examples of climate scientists exaggerating or even making up data. And it is true that the world’s climate has changed before. What is often left out is that those climate changes had a severe impact, particularly if carbon entered the atmosphere at a great rate. Some creatures survived, but it was not pleasant and it changed the world permanently destroying many ecosystems. There are plenty of books and articles that you can find that will talk about climate issues being a hoax. Talking points can be provided. But as farms in the Midwest struggle as never before, as flash floods kill more people in those areas that produce climate skeptics, and as we watch basic things that we’ve taken for granted like rivers, water and lakes disappear or become scarce; the anti-climate science talking points won’t matter. We will soon move on to a world that understands that this is real and that lives in fear of the next summer.

A friend of mine asked me to respond to some statements reportedly made by Tony Blair in a speech he gave entitled, “After Ukraine, What Lessons Now for Western Leadership?” The two main points being: “We are coming to the end of Western political and economic dominance” and “the biggest geo-political challenge will come from China, not Russia.” So that’s the question. Do I agree that the United States and the rest of the West need to prepare for their era of indisputable dominance to be over? The question deserves a thorough and nuanced response.

It is true that the U.S. dominated post-1945 global order is coming to an end. It was a world where the United States used its new power and leverage to create free-trade around the world that was propped up by the US dollar system and the U.S. military implicitly backing that dollar. Yes, that era is most definitely coming to an end as the world now finally has to deal with its $400 trillion dollars of debt and a fiat currency (the dollar) which is both over-inflated and being devalued annually (it’s a strong currency against others, but its value in purchasing power is declining daily and dramatically). Global currency systems only last about 50 years, and after the 1971 dropping of the gold standard, the U.S. dollar is probably entering its final years as the world’s global currency reserve. That will be a monumental change.

On the other hand, the dollar will not be replaced by the Chinese Yuan, nor will China be the world’s undisputable superpower replacing the United States. For a myriad of reasons too numerous to go into now, China is not well-positioned to be the world’s undisputed global leader. Suffice to say, that the Xi Jingping years (2013-Present), have exposed all of China’s internal weaknesses. It propped up its economy with bad loans, corruption, and extensive construction projects. It has barely made a single ally after spending more than a decade giving loans and building infrastructure for poor and emerging countries around the world. It has failed to go from an export-led economy to a consumer-based economy. It has lost the trust of foreign companies and foreign investors. The top leadership is still hopelessly divided between Xi Jingping and Jiang Zemin’s Shanghai clique. And most recently it has been dealing with collapsing banks and killer viruses. This is the tip of the iceberg and helps to show why assumptions that China will dominate the 21st Century are wrong. The greater danger is what a Chinese economic and societal collaspse could bring to the rest of the world.

Does this mean the U.S.A. is in the clear to be the dominant power? Not at all. In addition to the collapsing dollar system and its 200 trillion dollars of unpayable debt, the United States is heading into a world that is probably made up of mini-globalized regional economic blocks. The U.S., Canada, and Mexico will absolutely need to work closely together to keep their countries standard of living rising in the future. Supply-chains will still be globalized, but more localized as well. And a long period of high global inflation, a massive currency reset, the re-configuring of supply-chains, and continued environmental destruction will lead to the world’s nations to become very inward-looking for a decade, until they are forced to work more collectively.

No nation can militarily challenge the United States. The U.S. loses wars, not battles. In an all-out war with the gloves off, the U.S. wins handily and rapidly. But the U.S. tends to get bogged down in wars of half-assed occupation; which are frankly unwinnable from the start. But China is not anywhere near the U.S. in military power. It’s strongest compenent is the Chinese Navy which is only the 4th strongest in the Asia-Pacific region. China, like Russia, can only accomplish what the Western powers let it get away with. Which has tended to be a lot. If anything, the current situation in Russia and China could have been an opportunity for President Biden to put China and Russia’s constant bullying and badgering in its proper place (This could have been done by mobilizing carriers in the North Atlantic, the Mediterrenean, and Russia’s Far East, putting a military base in Poland, and moving the best fighter plans the U.S. has to Poland and Romania back in January). Just those moves alone could have neutered China and Russia for a very long time (in Russia’s case, permanently). It was a huge missed opportunity coming after 5 years in which both Russia and China had free-reign to outflank the U.S. militarily.

So we currently live in a world in which literally every country in the world is weakening either due to debt, currency collapse, demographic collapse (the big one), and/or fast-growing environmental challenges. Most “wealthy” countries are dealing with at least 3 of the 4. Most poor countries are dealing with all 4. On top of this, and often not discussed is the fact that the world is not remotely prepared to create a new energy grid without a lot of fossil fuels continuing to be used. This will not be the clean energy decade. Sadly, it will be the opposite.

Having said all that, the one country that is in the best position to emerge on top is still the United States. It has the geography, the bread-baskets, the innovative culture, the natural resources, the research facilities, the most balanced demographic situation, and the entrepreneurialism to re-invent itself and become stronger. As I pointed out in my 4th book IGWT, when the USA struggles, it is always because it is making internal, self-destructive choices (as we are now). Unlike the other countries of the world, the United States has all it needs to solve its outside problems.  It just chooses not to.

One last possibility is that the multi-polar world of rival nations gets replaced by empowered global citizens that view themselves as trans-national or artifical intelligence democracies that work in concert (one world government to the conspiracy theorists). While Blair warns the world of new polarities, the current story is one where only the planet is hot, not any one country.

Patrick Nachtigall is the author of six books dealing with religion and globalization including, “In God We Trust: A Challenge to Evangelicals” and “No Religion Required, a Memoir of Faith, Doubt, Chocolate Milk, and Untimely Death.”

Is America headed toward a violent civil war in the next couple of years? Over 40% of Republicans believe that the country will be split apart violently. They are not alone. Democrats and Independents also believe the country is close to the breaking point. About 80% of Americans feel like the country is on the wrong track. One third of Republicans believe violence is justified in order to save the country from a clearly stolen election. And since the Covid-lockdowns and the January 6th attack on the Capitol, American citizens now possess 400 million guns (more than one for every citizen). Amidst all of that, many evangelical Christians believe that the United States is becoming a godless country embracing abortion, homosexuality, wokeness, drugs, pornography, and a godless school system. And under the Trump/Pence Administration, they have seen the Supreme Court become more conservative and the pro-life movement reassert itself. Many evangelicals believe that if the Republicans can capture the presidency, the House, the Senate, and the Supreme Court, America will be great again and indisputably Christian. I think this is highly unlikely nor do I think it is desireable. Religiously-led governments are disasterous and would definitely kill off democracy in America, but let’s assume all of this happens peacefully through an election season and evangelical Republicans succesfully control the U.S. government. There are some enormous questions evangelicals will now have to wrestle with that they are not even remotely contemplating as they embark on this religious agenda. Let’s take a closer look:

It’s Tuesday, November 5th, 2024 and (Trump/Pence/some other evangelical) has won the presidency. Republicans control Congress and dominate the Supreme Court. Even most of the states have Republican governors. The first big question will be whether the Democratic Party should exist at all since they are supposedly slaves to liberalism and an anti-God party. That would then mean that evangelical leaders will need to push for a one-party State. Only a theocracy (A government based on God’s rules) will work if the Christian Republican Party is to reform this godless country. So that would mean American democracy is finished, and a “Godly government” is now in power. Great right? Who needs democracy if your government is under the leadership of a Holy God?

Well there’s another big challenge. Of the 329 million Americans, a generous high estimate would suggest that only 10% (30 million) are evangelicals. What if the other 299 million Americans violently protest this evangelical America? Are American evangelicals ready to take up arms against 90% of the unbelieving population? Are they ready to use or go up against high-powered assault rifles? Are they ready to have the Christian government round up citizens and put them into armed camps so as to not interfere with the Christian agenda? Or to see their children and grandchildren caught in the crossfire of a long religious war and insurgency that will be assymetrical. There will be car bombs, mass shootings, guerilla warfare, and many weapons being unleashed even if the U.S. military doesn’t show up in defense of the Christian government. What will be done with Hindus, Buddhists, Muslims, Jews, and Atheists? How will equality be preserved for them or what new restrictions will they face to keep America Christian? Basically, this evangelical government is going to have to find a way to control 300 million people (in a Biblically-based way?).

Perhaps the evangelicals can pivot and just proclaim the United States “a Christian nation” that doesn’t have to be led by evangelicals. But do these evangelical leaders in Washington D.C. view Eastern Orthodox and Roman Catholics as Christians? Traditionally, they have not. Nor have those branches been comfortable with Protestantism. What about within the protestant, evangelical, and Christian sect traditions: Liberal Protestants, Mormons and Seventh Day Adventists; where do they fit in? Will they need to be identified as heretics not to be listened to by needing to wear a badge? Maybe an upside down cross? Or will there be a huge fight within the American Christian government and society between evangelicals, other protestants, Catholics, and Orthodox Christians? How will this be settled? Which branch and theological school of Christianity gets to set the Christian rules of this Christian nation?

One answer could be making sure everyone gets a good evangelical education in public schools. But where are the evangelical or Christian leaders of America going to find the 3.5 million Biblically-based and correctly doctrinated teachers to educate our children? What do we do with non-religious educational institutions like Berkeley, Harvard, and Princeton and 4,000 other institutions where the curriculum is not religious?

Since the liberal media is untrustworthy and anti-American, which channels will be allowed to dispense news about our government? Fox News, OANN, the Christian Broadcasting Network? It would seem that the only way to get Christian truth to the masses would be through a select few channels. Do our cable providers drop most of our channels? Social media would need to be massively censored, so internet censorship would be a thing which would hinder knowledge and innovation. Also talk-radio would need to only reflect Christian values. Maybe all Americans should spend the hours they would have spent on social media, radio, and television reading the Bible instead. How many hours a day would that be? Wouldn’t that insure a more Godly society?

Then there’s the issue of art. If the lamestream media spreads liberalism and godlessness that undermines Christian values, then clearly much of what Hollywood produces should be banned. And someone will need to decide what gets banned, and once again, based on what stream of Christianity (Catholic, Protestant, Orthodox, Evangelical)? Is Zeferelli’s “Jesus of Nazareth” movie okay, or does it contradict some streams of Christianity? Must we say goodbye to some of our favorite shows, movies, and songs? It would seem so, if the government wants to make sure that church and state are not separated. The church would need to be present in everything. This would lead to the biggest problem of all: Religious belief dramatically decreases under religious governments. Are evangelicals ready for the secularization that would follow in “Christian America?”

What about other sources like Q-anon or Alex Jones or Sean Hannity. Is there a Q-anon theology that someone has developed? Where does there authority lie in relation to the Bible? Maybe they are trustworthy, Christian sources of information, but there would need to be some kind of theological matrix created upon which to declare them theologically kosher.

And what about the End-times? Many Evangelicals believe that Jesus is returning soon, and that things are getting bad because this is the prophesied sign of the times Jesus talked about in Matthew and that we find in the Book of Revelation. So, if we are indeed living in the end-times, then why are we evangelicals trying to prevent Jesus from returning by establishing a Christian theocracy in the United States? Wouldn’t that contradict what is seemingly going on in this prophetically-driven decaying world? And wouldn’t it delay Jesus’ return? It all seems pretty self-defeating, not to mention the Bible talks of a Kingdom ushered in by Jesus redeeming Creation through a New (non-political) Covenant, and a new Heaven and New Earth. The Bible doesn’t say anything about a Christian empire ushered in before the end-times or during the end-times by American evangelicals through politics. So wouldn’t this Christian American theology in fact be a competing “Kingdom?”

In fact, the Old Testament captures the folly and failure of “God-led government” and “Godly Kings” quite well, and the New Testament is primarily made up of small churches already divided amongst themselves by controversies. Not only are the churches in conflict and confusion about their identity and theology, but key leaders like Peter and Paul don’t agree on critical issues…and they weren’t trying to govern a nation of 300 million. In fact, not even Jesus manages to make it through his 3 years of ministry without one disciple betraying him completely and committing suicide because Satan entered him. What is to prevent division and Satan entering into this new Evangelical Christian Godly United States of America (ECGUSA)? What is to prevent this religious government from getting co-opted by bad actors like the Fascists and Nazis (Hitler, Stalin, Mussolini) who all used religion to justify their massacres? What safeguards have evangelicals come up with to prevent what happened in Ancient Israel and in the New Testament church from happening now in, of all places, the not so pure culture of Washington D.C.?

What these questions reveal is that politically active evangelicals are great at identifying what’s wrong and sinful in society, but not so hot on explaining how an Evangelical Christian Godly United States of America (ECGUSA) could ever be ushered in without destroying the separation-of-church-and-state-intentions of the Founding Fathers and repeating the same mistakes as found in the Old Testament and in Christendom. As Communist revolutionaries learned throughout the 20th century, the revolution is the easy part; it’s the day after you win the revolution that is the hard part. What are theocratic, one-party, Republican Christians planning to do with the rest of the 200 million Americans that are not in support of this agenda. It would seem like there should be some concrete plans presented and new theologies deliberated as well. Most importantly, are all these Christian theocrats ready for a very long, bloody, insurgency that will probably require murder, mass arrests and incarceration?

The reality is that a “Christian America” is not possible; not even by the Bible’s own definition. There’s one Heavenly Kingdom promised, not two. It doesn’t make sense from a political point of view, a theological view, or a Biblical point of view. It doesn’t even make sense from a self-perpetuating, self-interested, marketing point of view. Consequently, the goal of a one-party Christian theocratic state is not a Christian, or Biblical agenda. It is a fantasy ideology. But one which is alluring enough to some people, that a horrifically violent war in the near future is not out of the question, even though it should be.

Patrick Nachtigall is the author of six books including, “In God We Trust: A Challenge to Evangelicals” and “No Religion Required, a Memoir of Faith, Doubt, Chocolate Milk, and Untimely Death.”

Two months into the Russia-Ukraine War and the only person on the planet who seems to want to keep it going is Vladimir Putin. Reports of Russian troops firing on Russian troops, Russian media questioning the sinking of the Moscva warship, and high-level military commanders getting killed or disappearing mean that there are not too many public cheerleaders out there encouraging Putin. This begs the question whether its possible for Putin himself to be eliminated by assassination or by a coup d’etat? It’s hard to imagine this unpopular, expensive war continuing if it weren’t for Putin’s pride and misguided ideas about Ukraine. So how to get rid of him?

Assassinating Vladimir Putin is more difficult to pull off than it would be with most leaders. He fears ending up like Libya’s Colonel Khadaffi; surrounded by his own people torturing him to death before shooting him in the head. Consequently, he has not one, but two separate militias that are dedicated solely to helping him survive coups. Those are two tough walls to breach. Taking out one, or infiltrating one, doesn’t mean it gets you anywhere with the other.

The second group of people he has around him are the “Siloviki”–high ranked elites of key institutions like the FSB, special forces, domestic and foreign intelligence services that act as enforcers. They are key people in key positions who should theoretically be able to quell rebellions and coups before they can get off the ground. There were early signs that Putin’s Siloviki were uneasy with his war in Ukraine and plotting against him; but he seems to have jailed the trouble-makers or killed them in the nick of time.

A third group are the Oligarchs–the wealthy billionare’s who support the regime in exchange for being free to grift off the State. Putin is the sugar daddy that makes all the yachts, private planes, and French villas possible. However, if yachts and villas are getting confiscated, the oligarchs could turn; although much of their power would be taken away from them by Putin’s enemies or by Putin himself.

A fourth group is the military which is kept intentionally weak and without much respect in the public consciousness in order to prevent a situation where military coup d’etat’s are possible. Thus far the top levels of command have seemed to obediently send soldiers to their death without much complaint–although some of the forces on the ground have been reluctant to fight since Day one.

A fifth group are the regional bosses governing the provinces far away from Moscow and St. Petersberg. They are kept intentionally weak and disconnected from Moscow so as to not get intermingled in the day to day politics of the Kremlin. But if they so chose, they could try and disconnect from Moscow and break away–especially if locals demand it because of a decline in living standards.

A sixth group is the Russian Orthodox Church which continues to frame this as a cosmic battle between good and evil with Putin playing the role of the savior. The priesthood in Russia overwhelmingly supports the Patriarch’s call to support Putin and this “Holy War” and there seems to be no breaking that alliance. it has, however, cost the Russian Patriarch the Ukranian Orthodox Church and believers, as well as many other Orthodox Churches that are now condeming the Russian Orthodox Church.

So far it seems that Putin is well-protected from a coup. There are many layers between him and downfall. The fact that he was able to squash the rebellion within the Siloviki is discouraging. That was probably the best hope for regime change. The one card that may still be on the table is Putin being overthrown by more humiliating losses in Ukraine. Battles and wars that end up in embarassing defeats have a way of over-throwing dictators. They expose incompetence, cost the nation billions of dollars, and embarass the nation internationally. Damaging national pride is a big deal. This is currently in the process of happening. It seems like Russia’s big military push into Luhansk and Donetsk will once again be a very poorly-conceived military assault with troops that are not remotetly up to the task. One more month of embarassing losses and lack of progress could make Putin more vulnerable than he has ever been before. We can only hope.

SOME OF MY BIGGEST CONCERNS FOR UKRANIANS:

SEX-TRAFFICKERS: Refugees are perfect targets for being tricked by sex-traffickers. It happens all the time. Women looking for security, food, or shelter for their children are particularly easy targets as they are desperate to help their children survive. Already, there are many people on the borders of Ukraine offering their “help” and “services” to Ukranian women and children and these people are only there to abduct them, abuse them, and trap them permanently. It’s important that we have lots of trusted organizations on the ground crowding out the bad/evil actors and that we support them.

CONCENTRATION CAMPS: So far, the Russians version of warfare in Ukraine has not been a 21st Century one, but a 20th Century one. So it’s not surprising that there are now reports of Ukranian citizens being rounded up to be sent to “work-camps” in Siberia. Concentration camps are an old tactic used very often in 19th and 20th Century warfare (and the Chinese are using them now while the world looks away). When we make sacrifices in our homes, towns, cities or countries to take in Ukranian refugees, we could be saving them from this kind of horrific re-location and torture. You’re temporary sacrifice could be saving a man, a woman, a child, and a family from death or a life of horrific abuse.

COMPASSION FATIGUE: It’s easy to get burnt out on the news or decide “I have my own problems here.” That’s a legitimate feeling, but there are times when we have to force ourselves to engage with the world far away. When we can’t just stay locked in our little bubbles in our own neighborhood. I believe this is a major turning point for the world. The very order of the post-Cold War era (which has been in a form of anarchy and disorder) is being decided at this moment. Regardless of whether you believe that or not, when a nation of 44 million people (that provides a lot of food to the rest of the countries of the world) suddenly empties out–it will affect us all. I think one thing every country has learned in the past 10 years is that our institutions, our civil society, and our democracies are extremely fragile. Any on of us could find ourselves in this exact same situation. It’s no longer unthinkable. We might suddenly lose everything because of a coup in our country, a war, an energy crisis, or an extreme weather event. Any one of us could be that person that has suddenly lost everything and is dependent on a neighbor’s generosity and humanity to survive. Don’t look away. Give and Sacrifice more than you think possible. And KNOW HOPE!

 

A few weeks ago, China was celebrating their moment in the Olympic spotlight–yet another coming out party designed to show us that China is a superpower and a major player on the world stage. They used that time to re-affirm their special relationship with Putin’s Russia as both countries (and Saudi Arabia) work together to usher in a Post-American World Order. All seemed good until Putin did the unthinkable: He decided to invade a democratic Ukraine and bomb children’s hospitals. One can imagine that Xi Jingping flew into a rage when he learned of Putin’s geo-political disaster. Within days, Russia was demonized by the world, cut off from its huge savings account, protests spread to six continents at the speed of sound, and Russia was abandoned by just about every company ever to be involved with their economy. Suddenly, Xi’s buddy and special partner was not only a huge liability (21st Century Hitler), but was providing the blue-print by which China could be punished if Xi goes through on his threat of invading Taiwan.

While the global world order has seemed to be filled with lacsadaisacal actors and a fading West, the battle for Ukraine has stirred the entire world. It seems people are not ready to see democracies (no matter how dysfunctional) get bombed to oblivion by authoritarian bullies. Like Putin, Xi is all about making his country “great again,” and that often involved threatening a democratically-elected neighbor and doing things like establishing prison camps for Uyighrs. The Mao/Stalin shtick with occassional military skirmishes and oppression of ethnic minorities was working just fine. The world was scared of Xi and Putin and their “terrifying” militaries. But Putin went to far and the world (led by Ukraine) quickly figured out how to make a wanna-be re-emerging empire’s life hell.

Now China must ask some serious questions. Their own military is highly untested, having not been in a war since 1979 when they lost to Vietnam. Taiwan is so mountainous, it makes Vietnam look like Kansas. But in flat Ukraine, Putin’s tanks are having a hard time driving down highways. How will the Chinese middle-class react if McDonalds, KFC, Apple, Givenchy, and Prada permanently disappear? Then there’s the fact that China is already struggling with energy shortages and losing Ukraine as a source of grain is going to open the door to famine. What would happen if Brazil, Thailand, the USA and other food suppliers cut China off. Both China and Russia are countries surrounded by other nations that hate them. They have very few allies. What if Asia-Pacific nations form a NATO-like alliance or people from all over the world join forces with Taiwan to fight against China. Russia has struggled with an invasion by sea in Ukraine. Taiwan has really only one place to launch and amphibious assault. Could the Chinese regime withstand the humiliation and pariah status that Russia is now incurring? The U.S.A. might be weaker than it once was in a post-American world order, but neither Russia nor China have earned the goodwill to replace it. China, in fact, was the source of the Covid pandemic and is still struggling to contain it. China will continue to try to warn people away from Taiwan, but Putin has provided the world with an opportunity to create a blueprint if China does the unthinkable.

China, which is still caught in the middle-income trap and is seeing its growth slow significantly, is not in the strong position that it has been pretending to be in. Like Putin, Xi has been hoping that the smoke and mirrors shtick would continue to frighten the world. But Putin exposed himself and his country as a paper tiger. And while China is a far bigger part of the global economic engine; it has many of the fragilities of Russia, and in some cases, on a bigger scale (China’s enormous middle class is probably going to react far more aggressively than Russia’s small one). And both have put their future hopes in a style of government that invovles a cult of personality authoritarianism. No matter how big and wealthy a nation, that creates severe vulnerabilities all throughout the system.

This is an opportunity for the United States, Europe, Japan, Australia, South Korea, and emerging nations to re-draw the political world order. Although the world is most certainly. headed into a recession and a global energy crisis; the two most powerful rivals to American and Western power have been significantly de-fanged. The United States has not been a responsible actor for most of the past couple of decades, but like Ukraine, it is at least a nation that still sloppily believes in democracy and global commerce. Putin’s miscalculation was so bad and brought such ill will, he has accidently checked China’s aggressive foreign policy. Whatever deal they made in Beijing at the Olympics, Xi should get his money back from Putin.