The world is waiting and watching with baited breath to see whether Vladimir Putin will start (actually, expand) a war in Ukraine–a country already partially occupied. This is the fun part for Putin: Having the whole world treat him like a dangerous man, and Russia as a Superpower. That was the biggest goal of this entire exercise: Russia wants respect. But the fun part is almost over. At some point, Putin will have to make a choice and regardless of what he decides, the choice will be costly.

Putin has many reasons to want Ukraine conquered or permanently broken. He is worried about Russia’s vulnerability to land invasions (an ancient Russian concern). He is very concerned about the growing desire of nations around Russia wanting democracy and freedom. Ukraine now overwhelmingly wants to be part of the West and not the Russian East which is hugely problematic for Putin. Then there’s the issue of Putin viewing Ukraine as a Russian territory, not a separate country. But the overriding goal was to weaken NATO and make the United States in particular look like a has-been, declining world power.

All of that was easy enough over the past nine months. In fact, both Europe and the United States have been completely asleep at the wheel as Russia invaded Georgia, Crimea, the Donbass, and messed around in Syria and most recently Kazakhstan. George W. Bush had an amiable relationship with Putin, but put new U.S. bases around Russia’s borders. Obama naively tried a re-set with Russia, only to find out that they were entering into a new expansion phase. And Trump greatly admired Putin and did the dismantling of NATO, European alliances, and U.S. troop removal from Europe without Putin having to do anything. Then Biden came along reacting very slowly to Putin’s military build-up. By December, the allies began to respond much more quickly and forcefully than Putin ever expected.

The speed at which Sweden and Finland began to talk about joining NATO was alarming to Putin. The Baltic states, Poland, and many other countries offered everything from troops to high-tech equipment and the promise of loans. The U.S. sent military hardware, troops, and F-14’s in Poland and Romania. Although, Russia’s military is much more powerful than Ukraine’s; the Javelins, Stinger’s and other tank-busting equipment will do some embarassing damage to Putin’s military. If NATO firepower and airpower got into the equation, it would go extremely poorly for Russia. If U.S. airpower got involved, Russia’s military would never recover. Luckily for Putin, right now it seems like it is only Ukranians he will have to fight.

What can Putin gain? It looks like he took this ruse too far. He really expected Biden and NATO to blink because prior to this, they weren’t even awake. But what he has done is made Russia more hated in Ukraine, pushed NATO closer together than it has been since 9/11, and he has pushed Finland and Sweden toward NATO’s orbit. Furthermore, he is using the bulk of Russia’s military hardware. Were things to go wrong, there would be no rebuilding it. He has also left Russia’s Far East dangerously exposed because Russia simply doesn’t have the huge army it pretends to have. These are 1 or 2 year conscripts, hired mercenaries, and a hodge-podge of other soldiers. Can these troops do a lot of damage to the Ukrainians. Absolutely, but Russia has few young men left in its country to serve in the military (its demographic condition is horrible). Much of its equipment is not in good condition. One can expect a lot of tank failures and faulty equipment. And of course, occupying a country is a long, bloody nightmare (something the USA didn’t bother to take into consideration in Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan). A long occupation of even half of the Ukraine would be a huge drain on resources and lives. Neither is it clear that Russia’s generals see eye to eye with Putin. Ultimately, Putin’s number one goal at all times is his own survival, which requires happy oligarchs stealing from the Russian people and parking their money overseas, and a happy military. Any dent in those two alliances could lead to his nightmare: being the Russian Colonel Khaddaffi.

Putin is often mistaken as a master strategist. He is not. He is a bully, a gaslighter, and he has no capacity for shame. Those three things will get you very far against weak enemies. Putin was counting on those things continuing to work. But if he acts on the Ukraine, there will be more resistance than he expected. China is watching, and the U.S. and the West cannot let the Ukraine be swallowed up with only a small price to pay. So Putin wants to back out. But now he is in danger of looking like a paper-tiger; and the whole point of this was to appear scary to NATO.

So what will he do? I suspect Putin wants this to end and doesn’t want to risk a severe weakening of Russia’s military capability. It wasn’t supposed to go this far. However, Putin also can’t afford to lose face. His best option might be to expand only a few miles past the Donbass and then aim for a cease-fire. He wins a few battles and gets to call off the war with a few square miles of territory added on. Or he could just leave his troops in Belarus and pretend the whole thing was just to occupy and militarize Belarus. Or he could call it all off and try to frame the whole thing as the USA pulling an Iraq War intelligence mistake-a-la-2003 (the gas-lighting approach). Putin really can’t afford this war. But nobody knows how sane or insane Putin is. Is he like Hitler and he considers himself a military genius? Is he surrounded by “yes” men giving him false reports? Or is he a rational actor? We will soon find out. Regardless, any credibility he hoped to have is shot. And Russia will remain a bad actor on the global stage for the rest of the Putin era. With the Chinese, the Saudis, and others they can continue to try to weaken and sabotage American and European power. But this is probably Putin’s last big gambit of any consequence. His hopes of having Russia return to the table as a respectable power in the G-8 are gone regardless of what he chooses.

Homicide: A Year on the Killing Streets by David Simon.

The creator of the utterly brilliant HBO show “The Wire” once spent a year following the lives and cases of detectives on the Baltimore Police Department. The result is a non-fiction book that goes into the complicated life of police officers, the politics of police departments and cities, and the daily horrors the detectives are exposed to. Simon is very even-handed showing the dark side of policing, as well as the positive and near-impossible side of working America’s violent streets. Some of the stories are moving, others are downright hilarious, and some crime scenes are described in such graphic detail that you will never get the images out of your head after you read them. Nevertheless, this is the book to read if you want a no-holds barred look into policing in the United States. As for the TV show “The Wire;” all Americans should be required to watch all 5 seasons to better understand how this country’s crime, policing, government, media, and politics work and don’t work.

The Red House: A Novel by Andrea Lee. Very few novels or works of non-fiction deal with the large island of Madagascar –which is located off the Southeast corner of Africa. In fact, there is very little scholarly work or historical books on Madagascar. Along comes this novel about an African-American woman who is a scholar teaching in Milan. She and her Italian husband spend each summer at their red house in a northern beach town in Madagascar. It’s a mysterious island made up of indigenous people mixed with settlers from Sub-Saharan Africa, India, and Indonesia. It’s culture and its problems are very unique. The lead character must not only learn to adapt to life in this unusual place, but also deal with the fact that on Madagascar, she, an African-American, has more power and priviledge than the local Madagascar people they employ. It’s a great book about what it means to be an ex-pat, a minority, and a visitor on this unique island.

The Ends of the World: Volcanic Apocalypse, Lethal Oceans, and Our Quest to Understand Mass Extinction by Peter Brannen. Who knew that a book about the carbon cycle, tectonic plates, and the previous extinctions on Earth could be so fun and fascinating. The book demonstrates that high levels of carbon dioxide have routinely caused problems for life forms on Earth. Not every creature is killed in any extinction, but the Earth’s climate changes challenge the vast majority of life forms on Earth–particularly mammals. Compared to other life forms, humans are particularly unsuited for huge variations in temperature on the level that the Earth has routinely seen. The book argues that periods of low CO2 are abberations in Earth’s history, not the norm. He’s a great, easy-to-read Science writer.

Everybody Lies: Big Data, New Data, and What the Internet Can Tell Us About Who We Really Are by Seth Stephens-Davidowitz. It turns out that people lie a lot when they take surveys. But one place where they don’t lie is in their private google searches. The author mines big data to learn about what people really think about some of the touchiest topics out there. The book is amusing, funny, and fascinating. While correlation doesn’t necessarily equal causation, there is a lot to be learned regarding people’s true opinions, desires, concerns and prejudices from big data.

The Hitman’s Guide to Housecleaning by Hallgrimur Helgason. A funny novel about a Croatian mafia hitman who is now being hunted himself. In an effort to avoid being killed, he flees to Iceland where he hides his identity and learns about quirky Icelandic culture with the locals.

Noble Savages: My Life Among Two Dangerous Tribes- the Yamomano and the Anthropologists by Napoleon Chagnon. Chagnon did some groundbreaking anthropological work with the remote and very violent Yamomano tribes of the Northern Amazon. Beginning in the 1960’s, he discusses his challenges adapting to their world, the violence and dysfunction he found, and the increasingly politically-correct Anthropologists who preferred to downplay anything that didn’t idealize the Yamomano’s hunter-gatherer lives.

Pachinko by Min Jin Lee. Koreans that are born and raised in Japan are considered a low-caste, minority group it is better to ignore. This novel follows 3 generations of Korean women beginning during the Japanese occupation of Korea which led many Koreans to re-locate to Japan where they have never been welcome or viewed as equals. It’s a touching novel that shows the challenges immigrants and demonized minorities face. You will care about the women that drive this story.

The Rise of America: Remaking the World Order by Marin Katusa. A book that goes against common thinking that argues that America is on the brink of another great rise, instead of decline. Katusa, A Canadian who made his fortune in the mining industry, argues quite persuasively that the U.S.A. is still indispensible to the world in a way China and other countries are not. He focuses on the strength of the dollar, credit-swaps, and the difficulty of doing business in many of the world’s countries. He’s probably a little too optimistic, but he is correct that the China-dominating-the-world thesis is overblown. Regardless, the next 10 years are going to suck no matter what. Everyone agrees on that; including Katusa.

If You Tell: A True Story of Murder, Family Secrets, and the Unbreakable Bond of Sisterhood by Gregg Olsen. Mental illness is a common problem in the United States. And mentally ill narcissists with bully personalities are particularly dangerous. This is the true story of three girls in Washington State raised by their highly manipulative mother. It’s not a pleasant or happy read. It offers a deep, insight into a severely psychopathic personality and how that can affect the whole family.

Sex, Drugs, and Opera: There’s Life After Rock and Roll by Roland Orzabal. Yes, that’s right! The lead singer of the 80’s British pop group Tears for Fears wrote a novel; and it’s super fun. It’s the story of an 80’s washed up rock star who is offered the chance to be a part of a television talent show to resuscitate his career. Aside from the fun insights into the life of a rock star past his prime, it’s also a fun look at middle age, the music industry and celebrity. He’s not only a great songwriter, Roland is a wonderful novelist!

Do Not Disturb: The Story of a Political Murder and An African Regime Gone Bad by Michela Wrong. Anyone who has been to Rwanda knows that the first visit is quite shocking. The streets are cleaner than in the U.S., there’s virtually no street crime, and even the speed limits are low and obeyed. It’s a beautiful, well-organized country that has rebounded from the horrific civil war that killed 800,000 people due to ethnic violence. But there’s a dark side to all of this law and order. The resentments and wounds of one of the worst civil wars in the last 50 years are still there under the surface. And Paul Kagame, Rwanda’s perpetual leader, rules with an iron fist and a highly active secret police. It’s not only interesting because Rwanda has a very unique story, but also because the trade-off between authoritarianism and a crime-free and relatively prosperous society is one that will be a common theme in the next couple of decades as AI, populism, and surveillance societies grow.

The Sweetness of Water by Nathan Harris. This novel takes place in Georgia as the Civil War comes to a conclusion and the South grapples with its loss. Two African-American slaves are given their freedom and a white farmer dares to give them employment. But nobody in the newly liberated South is interested in seeing two black men making a living as free men. It’s easy to believe that life was heaven for the slaves as soon as they were liberated from captivity, but in many ways, the struggle was just beginning.

Affluence Without Abundance, What We Can Learn from the World’s Most Succesful Civilization by James Suzman. There are less hunter gathering societies in the world that ever. The Bushmen of the Kalahari (San) have been, perhaps, the most resilient society on Earth. Their ways of hunting, communicating with each other, ethics of sharing and finding contentment with less is inspirational and relevant. It describes a tribe that is much closer to how humans have lived throughout human history than how we do now. For that reason, it allows us to juxtapose our lives with theirs to ask the question: How healthy is our modern lifestyle truly?

The Ministry of the Future by Kim Stanley Robinson. Sci-fi writer KSR takes us about 10 to 20 years in the future when too many extreme climate events are occuring for the world’s governments to stay as passive as they are. A mostly toothless, bureaucratic organization is created by the United Nations and it’s committee has to navigate the politics, the science, the terrorism, the conspiracy theories, and the migrations that climate change has caused. The book goes deep into the science as well as the bureaucracy and politics of climate change. While there is a main character, many chapters are written from the point of view of key people, groups, and even from the point of view of elements and inventions. The opening scene of a deadly heatwave in India is petrifying and something that is entirely plausible in 2021. In fact, the temperatures described in this fictional book have already occurred in Iran, Pakistan, and Mexico in low populated areas. It’s a temperature that is so hot and humid, the human body loses the ability to sweat and cool itself off–thus literally frying. This is a great way to learn about the challenges of climate change; and yes, it is balanced, and if anything errs on the side of optimism.

When I was a little kid in the 1970s, my father would show his slides of Africa from time to time to our visitors. There was one photo that he always highlighted on purpose: a photo of the Jumo Kenyatta Convention Center. The building looked like a modern skyscraper. “I show this because people think everyone in Africa lives in huts and that there are no cities,” he told me. At the time, it was true. Most people around the world thought Africa was completely rural and full of starving poor people. Today, 50 years later, hopefully most people around the world are aware that Africa is primarily urban, has a fast-growing middle class, has embraced technology and is producing millionaires and billionaires. But Africa will soon enter a new challenging phase as it deals with an urban population that grows to be as large as China and India combined.

When China urbanized between 1980 and 2000, it changed our world. China integrated into the global economy, its geo-political influence grew, it led to new global environmental concerns as well as a massive need for natural resources, and it even gave us global epidemics to deal with. Now Africa is on pace to surpass China’s urbanization with at least nine cities that will soon have 60 million people each (Greater New York City has 18 million).

The urbanization of Africa has brought some measure of advancement. Today in Kenya, they are more advanced in daily fintech use than the United States, they are a tech hub, and they already have high-speed rail. Who would have thought in the 1980s that Ethiopia, the country that became synonymous with malnourished, starving, babies, would have a top-of-the-line, global airline and serve as a hub for all of Africa. A journey across Africa will yield many pleasant surprises to visitors who have outdated stereotypes about Africa being “primitive.”

Nevertheless, Africa’s infrastructure is still sub-par, it has still not become a key manufacturing hub, and it has not become a leader in green technology and experimentation (especially in regard to solar power considering Africa’s abundance of sunlight). Africa has a natural disadvantage economically due to its geography as well. Nearly half of the continent is desert and there are more natural harbours between Boston and northernmost Maine than in all of Africa. The lack of connection to global shipping is a serious limitation.

Local government in Africa tends to be very weak. Unlike China, where local provincial leaders and city mayors pushed their people toward innovation and created global trading partners, African countries tend to be very centralized or far too disconnected. Many countries have seen advancment to their infrastructure mostly come from Chinese investment, which is mainly concerned with securing Africa’s natural resources.

Then there is the issue of Africa’s population being so young. It is estimated that 57 percent of global population growth through 2050 will occur in Africa. Almost 60 percent of the continent’s population is under the age of 25. The good news is that mortality rates are way down in Africa. There are far fewer people dying due to famine, war, disease or in childbirth than ever before. But that also creates a challenge with 11 million youth seeking jobs each year. A steep divide between rich and poor could easily grow to the point that Africa becomes a continent of gated communities and angry, revolutionary youth.

Another issue is climate change. While it’s easy for Westerners to minimize climate change and heat waves, on a continent where electricity may not be accessible daily and few have air conditioning, longer, more intense heat waves would be deadly. This will lead to more migration, which could cause more ethnic tension in small African countries where the local population can easily get over-run and outnumbered. The countries of West Africa are already seeing French-speaking areas become more English-speaking. Ethnic tensions can easily lead to war and a refugee crisis. Already, Europe is expecting more waves of refugees.

Obviously, Africa is not one country or monolithic, rather it is many different countries and ethnic groups all with their particularities that should be taken seriously and on their own accord. But continents affect the world. The good news is that Africa has far exceeded expectations in the past two decades. With such a large youthful population, adaptation to the next wave of technological adoption could come very easily indeed. The African diaspora has gotten considerably more wealthy, and African countries are learning how to navigate the influence of China and other assertive powers. The best thing that could probably happen for the continent would be focusing on educational and entrepreneurial opportunties for young girls and women throughout the continent. It has been said that the most gifted entrepreneurial people in the world are African mothers–always having to invent and make-do with limited resources. Regardless of where Africa is headed, my father’s slides of buildings in Africa should no longer be needed. Africa is on the world stage.

In case you haven’t noticed, our planet is in chaos environmentally, geo-politically, and socially. Also, you may have noticed that the world’s most famous billionares are trying to move us to outer space. Mars seems to be the destination of choice for our new home. It’s not very far (only 33 million miles away), you can get there in 7 months (which is like going to the corner store by Milky Way galaxy standards, and it looks a lot like Sedona, Arizona; which is always a lovely place for a family vacation. But is moving to the Red Planet a good idea? No, but let’s at least look at the neighborhood.

Most people view Mars as not that much different than Planet Earth. It’s round like Earth, is half the size and our blue planet, there seems to be water there (although not Perriere), and the dust and rocks there are familiar materials that we can walk on, drive on, and throw at other humans–which I’m sure we will want to do. It looks like we could at least build a casino, a McDonald’s, and start a cool rock climbing business there. There is a grand canyon on Mars called Valles Marineris which is 3,000 miles long–or the length of the entire United States! You couldn’t ride a donkey down into the canyon like the Brady Bunch did, and you would want to make sure to take a map, but it would be an amazing tourist site. There’s also a mountain called Olympus Mons that is a volcano the size of Arizona that is 84,000 ft. high (or almost 3 times as high as Mt. Everest). Last, there are some enormous sand dunes which would be great for dune bugging tourists. Unfortunately, the average temperature on Mars is -51 degrees Farenheit. True that the poles on Mars can get up to a crispy 95 degrees Farenheit, but the winter would be -225 degrees Farenheit (or the same temperature that my wife keeps our house’s thermostat at during the winter).

For those that struggle with allergies on Planet Earth, Martian dust storms could make breathing extremely difficult. There’s not much gravity on Mars which means only the Kardashians would feel comfortable there. Another small factor would be that due to the weak air pressure, your blood would literally boil more than it does when you read people’s political posts on Facebook. In fact, your blood would boil you to death. Sadly, building the first Starbucks or Pizza Hut will probably have to wait. The first Earth ex-pats will need to live in something even more uncomfortable than the martian atmosphere: a small enclosed spaceship filled with other human beings. That will probably be a bigger challenge than Mars’ inhospitable atmosphere. If you think the Covid lockdowns were bad…

Perhaps the weirdest thing that would happen is that humans would start to evolve into a different form of human due to the lack of gravity. Humans would grow taller, they would have weaker hearts and circulation, and would lose a lot of body hair. The size of people’s teeth wouuld probably shrink as well due to a controlled diet. That might be a deal-breaker for the health fanatics and the vain. Is it worth living on Mars if we end up looking like the lovechild of Steve Buscemi and Ratboy?

To make Mars’ atmosphere more hospitable, Elon Musk has suggested nuking the planet. This would be an attempt to “terraform” Mars and quickly alter the atmosphere. Somehow, Musk misses the irony of that idea. Ridiculous moonshots like…well, going to the moon or Mars, often end up creating a lot of useful technology. A lot of what is in our mobile phones was invented due to the space race of the 1960’s (as well as the Gulf Wars). Experiments in Space do lead a lot of useful information. The efforts to reach Mars, colonize it, and create space tourism will yield some amazingly helpful inventions. But as with everything humands do, we are also good at creating messes. Currently, there are 900,000 pieces of discarded space junk floating around our planet. Any one of these pieces of metal orbiting the world could puncture a hole in any spaceship we ever send into Space. In other words, the environmental degredation of Space is already long underway before we’ve even opened one In-N-Out Burger on the Moon. Maybe that’s why the Martians have stayed away all these years.